
Forecasting for business is about creating a view of the future which can be used to aid planning decision making. This future view should be rigorous and explainable.
The best start to predicting what will happen in the future is to know what is happening in the present. This knowledge may take the form of personal knowledge, formal market data or specific research.
Knowledge of future events, which can be gathered from numerous sources, can also be factored into the emerging picture of the future that is generated by pulling these data sources together.
By building a consistent picture of the future, we can understand better the forces which operate there, and hence better decide how to position an enterprise to take best advantage of the situation.
A forecast is therefore used to reduce the uncertainty that we have when considering how the future will unfold. By reducing this uncertainty, we can make better, more appropriate business decisions.
However, it must remembered that a forecast reduces the uncertainty. It is not a crystal ball!
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